ABSTRACT
This study investigates the origins, evolution, and potential conflict risks associated with hydropolitical disputes between Iran and Afghanistan over the utilization of the Hirmand/Helmand River. It specifically addresses whether the unresolved water-sharing dispute, despite the existence of the 1973 Afghan-Iranian Helmand River Water Treaty, could escalate into armed conflict. The findings indicate that the roots of the Helmand River dispute can be traced back to 19th-century border demarcations under British arbitration, which embedded structural problems that have persisted for over 150 years. The 1973 Water Treaty, built upon these historical foundations, has proven inadequate under contemporary conditions due to neglect of climate change, demographic pressures, and environmental degradation. The Taliban’s return to power in 2021, coupled with alterations in the river’s flow and recurrent border clashes, has elevated the dispute to a critical security issue. This study concludes that the current water-sharing regime is unsustainable, with conflict risks escalating due to climate change impacts. Both states’ securitization of water resources as national security imperatives restricts avenues for diplomatic resolution. Accordingly, the paper recommends revising the 1973 agreement to reflect present-day hydrological realities, adopting modern transboundary water governance mechanisms, and utilizing international mediation frameworks.