A Path-Dependent Explanation of Regime Stability: Uprisings, Political Power, and the Military in Egypt


This study aims to explain the political change in Egypt since 2011 by focusing on the role of the army. The historical and pivotal role of the Egyptian army as the founding agency of political order in Egypt has also shaped the process of change in the post-Mubarak era. Although the relationship of the army with the political establishment has taken different forms since the Nasser era, the influence of the army has not undergone any structural change. In this context, the study examines the mass protests that started in January 2011 and demanded regime change as well as the political process in the aftermath of the uprising using the method of process tracing. The army’s central role is clearly observable in the whole process, from the start of the protests, the overthrow of Mubarak, the transition period to the Morsi era, and finally the coup d’état to the reshaping of the political order. The study seeks an answer based on the concept of path dependency to the question of why no regime change has occurred in Egypt despite the overthrow of Mubarak’s rule and the occurrence of free elections.


Path dependency Egypt mass uprisings military regime stability