ABSTRACT
In contemporary international relations, the interaction between conventional and nuclear powers creates a complex dynamic that significantly influences states’ threat perceptions and behaviors. The discovery in mid-2021 that China had constructed three new missile silo fields raised questions about whether a shift had occurred in China’s traditional minimum nuclear deterrence strategy. This study posits that China is deviating from its long-standing nuclear strategy. Adverse changes in the conventional balance between the United States and China have incentivized China to enhance its nuclear capabilities and improve its nuclear force’s deterrence capability by developing its conventional capabilities. A state that perceives its nuclear deterrence to be able to be weakened by the conventional capabilities of its adversary tends to respond by strengthening its nuclear deterrence. Similarly, such a state can enhance its conventional capabilities to increase the survivability of its nuclear forces. Chinese experts view the United States’ conventional precision strike capabilities as a significant threat to China’s assured retaliation capability. Furthermore, these experts believe that China’s nuclear arsenal faces a more diverse range of conventional threats compared to the past. This study aims to analyze the reasons behind China’s expansion of its nuclear missile silos. The study also examines the role of nuclear weapons in China’s military doctrine as well as recent modernization efforts within the Chinese military. The focal point of this study is to understand China’s evolving nuclear capabilities based on its threat perceptions and their impact on global security dynamics.